Imagine waking up every day not knowing if you'll have food, water, or even a safe place to sleep. This is the stark reality for millions in Sudan right now, where a brutal conflict has created a humanitarian catastrophe of unimaginable proportions. But what exactly is happening, and why is it so difficult to stop? Let's dive in.
Since April 15, 2023, Sudan has been ravaged by a devastating war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Lieutenant General Mohamed ‘Hemedti’ Hamdan Dagalo. Fueled by external support from various governments, this conflict has become a horrific war of attrition, with innocent civilians bearing the brunt of the suffering. The death toll is staggering, with estimates suggesting as many as 150,000 casualties between April 2023 and June 2024 alone, according to ReliefWeb. Even more horrifying, numerous human rights organizations have documented evidence of crimes against humanity committed by both sides. The scale of displacement is immense: at least 14.5 million Sudanese, out of a population of 51 million, have been forced from their homes, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO).
And it gets even worse. The people living in the region between El Fasher in North Darfur and Kadugli in South Kordofan are battling acute hunger and famine. A recent UN analysis reveals that a staggering 21.2 million Sudanese – that’s 45% of the entire population – are facing severe food insecurity. A shocking 375,000 people are on the very brink of starvation, facing what the UN calls 'catastrophic' levels of hunger.
Early in the war, hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people sought refuge in El Fasher, which was then largely controlled by the SAF. But in October 2025, the RSF broke through the city's defenses, and what followed was devastating. Approximately 260,000 civilians remained in the city when the RSF entered and allegedly carried out numerous documented massacres. The WHO reported that among those killed were 460 patients and their companions at the Saudi Maternity Hospital. With the fall of El Fasher, the RSF now largely controls the vast province of Darfur, while the SAF maintains control over much of eastern Sudan, including Port Sudan (the country's vital access point to the sea and international trade), and the capital city of Khartoum. Unfortunately, there are currently no signs of de-escalation.
So, what's driving this brutal conflict between the SAF and the RSF? The reasons are complex, but at its heart, this war is a counter-revolution against the 2019 popular uprising that successfully ousted President Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for decades marked by rising inflation and social unrest. The left-leaning and popular forces behind the 2019 uprising, including the Sudanese Communist Party, the National Consensus Forces, the Sudanese Professional Association, the Sudan Revolutionary Front, the Women of Sudanese Civic and Political Groups, and numerous local resistance and neighborhood committees, pressured the military into agreeing to oversee a transition to a civilian government.
With the assistance of the African Union, the Transitional Sovereignty Council was established, comprising five military and six civilian members. Abdalla Hamdok was appointed prime minister, and Judge Nemat Abdullah Khair became chief justice. Al-Burhan and Hemedti also served on the council. But here's where it gets controversial... This military-civilian government, despite its promise of progress, arguably made the economic situation even worse. By floating the currency and privatizing state assets, they inadvertently made gold smuggling more lucrative, which in turn strengthened the RSF. This government also signed the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations with Israel. The policies of this government only exacerbated the conditions that led to the showdown over power (control over the security state) and wealth (control over the gold trade).
Despite their positions on the council, al-Burhan and Hemedti repeatedly attempted coups, eventually succeeding in 2021. With the civilians sidelined, the two military leaders turned against each other. The SAF officers sought to maintain their control over the state apparatus, which in 2019 consumed a staggering 82% of the state's budgetary resources, as confirmed by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok in 2020. They also aimed to retain control of their extensive business empire, running over 200 companies through entities like the SAF-controlled Defence Industries System (estimated at $2 billion in annual revenue) and capturing a significant share of Sudan's formal economy across mining, telecommunications, and import-export commodity trade.
The RSF, with its roots in the notorious Janja'wid militia, sought to leverage its autonomous war economy, centered around the Al Junaid Multi-Activities Corporation. This corporation controls major gold-producing areas in Darfur and about half a dozen mining sites, including Jebel Amer. And this is the part most people miss... Because 50–80% of Sudan's overall gold production is smuggled, primarily to the UAE, rather than officially exported, and because the RSF dominates production in western Sudan's artisanal mining zones (which account for 80–85% of total production), the RSF captures a massive amount of revenue from gold every year, with estimates suggesting $860 million from Darfur mines alone in 2024.
But beneath these political and economic power struggles lies another critical factor: ecological pressures. The long-standing conflict in Darfur has been exacerbated by the desiccation of the Sahel region. For decades, erratic rainfall and heatwaves caused by climate change have expanded the Sahara Desert southward, leading to increased competition for scarce water resources and sparking clashes between nomadic herders and settled farmers. Today, half of Sudan's population lives with acute food insecurity. The failure to develop an economic plan that addresses the rapid changes in weather patterns creates a fertile ground for long-term conflict. This isn't just a war between two powerful personalities; it's a struggle over resources and their exploitation by outside powers. A ceasefire agreement is once again on the table, but the likelihood of it being accepted or upheld is slim as long as these valuable resources remain a tempting prize for the various armed groups.
So, what are the possibilities for peace in Sudan? A sustainable path forward would require six key elements:
- An immediate and monitored ceasefire, including the establishment of humanitarian corridors for the safe passage of food and medicines. These corridors should be managed by the Resistance Committees, which have the democratic legitimacy and local networks to deliver aid directly to those in need.
- An end to the war economy, specifically by shutting down the gold and weapons pipelines. This would involve imposing strict sanctions on the sale of weapons to and the purchase of gold from the UAE until it cuts all ties with the RSF. Export controls at Port Sudan are also crucial.
- The safe return of political exiles and the initiation of a process to rebuild political institutions under a civilian government elected or supported by popular forces, primarily the Resistance Committees. The SAF must be stripped of its political power and economic assets and placed under government control. The RSF must be disarmed and demobilized.
- The immediate reconstruction of Sudan's higher judiciary to investigate and prosecute those responsible for atrocities.
- The immediate creation of an accountability process that includes the prosecution of warlords through a properly constituted court in Sudan.
- The immediate reconstruction of Sudan's planning commission and its ministry of finance to shift surplus from export enclaves toward public goods and social protections.
These six points expand upon the three pillars of the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s AU-IGAD Joint Roadmap for the Resolution of the Conflict in Sudan (2023). But the challenge with this roadmap, like similar proposals, is its dependence on donors, including actors who are themselves implicated in the violence. For these six points to become a reality, outside powers must be pressured to cease their support for both the SAF and the RSF. This includes countries like Egypt, the European Union, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States. Neither this roadmap nor the Jeddah channel – a Saudi-US mediation track launched in 2023 that focuses on short truces and humanitarian access – includes Sudanese civilian groups, least of all the Resistance Committees. This is a complex situation with no easy answers.
But here's the burning question: Can peace truly be achieved in Sudan without addressing the root causes of the conflict, including the exploitation of its resources and the influence of external actors? Is it even possible for the international community to act as an honest broker when so many players have vested interests in the outcome? Share your thoughts and opinions in the comments below. Let's discuss what a truly just and lasting peace might look like for the people of Sudan.
