The political landscape in Gorton and Denton is about to undergo a dramatic shift, and the stakes couldn't be higher. This three-way battle is a pollster's worst nightmare, with an outcome that could have far-reaching implications.
In a tearful display of emotion, Angeliki Stogia, Labour's candidate, expressed her anger and frustration at Reform UK's presence in Greater Manchester. For Stogia, a Greek immigrant who arrived in Britain as a student in 1995, this election hits close to home.
"I am furious," she declared. "How dare they come here and sow division? This is my community, my people."
The byelection in Westminster is often a fierce contest, but this particular battle is exceptionally unpredictable. Labour, the Green Party, and Reform UK are all vying for control, with Labour's 13,000-vote majority at stake after the retirement of Andrew Gwynne.
Starmer's government is already facing a crisis over Peter Mandelson's links to Jeffrey Epstein, and a defeat on February 26th could further fuel calls for the Prime Minister's resignation.
Labour has historically dominated this diverse region of southeast Manchester, but the Green Party is currently the bookmakers' favorite, just three weeks before polling day.
Stogia accused the Greens of spreading misinformation through their campaign materials, suggesting that only they can beat Reform UK. She fears that this could ultimately benefit Reform in a tight race.
"I'm worried we'll lose," Stogia said. "Every Green vote will make Reform happy."
Professor Robert Ford from the University of Manchester explained that the key to understanding this byelection lies in the demographics. For every vote in Denton, a Farage-friendly area, there are two votes in the larger, more diverse, and left-leaning Manchester.
In 2024, nearly 80% of the constituency supported left-leaning parties. Reform UK's only realistic chance of victory lies in the Green Party splitting the Labour vote.
The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, faces a daunting task. They have no councillors in the constituency and trailed Labour by 14,000 votes in the last election. Despite their resource constraints, they are making up for it with enthusiasm.
An army of volunteers gathered in a Morrisons car park, braving the wind and rain, to distribute 40,000 leaflets. Their candidate, Hannah Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber from Bolton, has become a local celebrity of sorts.
Spencer, a rising star in the Green Party, is a stark contrast to Reform UK's candidate, Matt Goodwin, an academic-turned-GB News polemicist. Online, Spencer is portrayed as "Reform's worst nightmare" and "the grafter versus the grifter."
While Spencer took time off to train as a plasterer, Goodwin posed for photos with Farage.
"He's just a TV presenter trying to advance his career," Spencer said of Goodwin. "I've proven that I'll work hard."
Spencer, who once graced the pages of The Guardian as one of the best-dressed at Glastonbury, has had to adjust to the sudden attention. Social media trolls have called her a "fake plumber" and spread false rumors about her marital status.
"I wish I were married to an ultra-wealthy financier," she laughed. "I can't even get a text back!"
Despite the popularity of Spencer, Labour remains confident that only they can defeat Reform. However, it's clear that the Green Party has emerged as an electoral force in Labour's backyard. Other parties, such as George Galloway's Workers Party and Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party, are standing aside and encouraging their supporters to back the Greens.
According to the latest census, about 28% of the constituency identifies as Muslim, but this rises to at least half of the population in two former Labour strongholds, Longsight and Levenshulme.
Lucy Powell, Labour's deputy leader and MP for neighboring Manchester Central, dismissed the notion that the pro-Palestinian Workers Party vote would simply switch to the Greens.
"Anger over Gaza is not as vocal against Labour as it was in 2024," she said. "I was treated like a Hollywood star at a mosque recently. People would have turned their backs on me two years ago."
Ghulam Ghaus, a 73-year-old local Labour party member, plans to vote for Labour out of familiarity rather than enthusiasm.
"The Green Party has good policies, but they're not well-known," he said. "You only see them on election day."
Catherine O'Connor, a 66-year-old retired cleaner, usually votes Labour but is considering switching to the Green Party this time.
"That Starmer's not much good, is he?" she asked.
Alf Warrender, a 62-year-old retired transport manager, plans to vote for Reform UK. He feels cheated by Labour and believes Reform is the only party that can remove them from power.
"If I thought the Greens would win, I'd vote Green," he said. "I'm not a fan of Reform, but I'm even less of a fan of Labour."
His wife, Jo, a charity worker, intends to vote for Spencer, as she is "absolutely disgusted" by the Trigger Me Timbers scandal.
"We know which way it's going in this house," her husband joked.
Professor Ford described this election as a "pollster's nightmare."
"Three parties could win, and each has a plausible story about how they might achieve victory," he said.
Stogia made a final plea before rushing off to her next event:
"Give me a chance. I'm fighting at every level. I'm battling lies and fighting at a national level. It feels positive, but we have a tough fight ahead."
The outcome of this election is anyone's guess, and the implications could be significant. Who will emerge victorious in this three-way battle? Only time will tell.
